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2018 First Season Sires . 2nd Crop/1st Year 

             No Nay Never (NNN) continues to be relatively the best of this cohort of stallions with their 2nd crop although not as good as his 1st crop so far. His mares this time around were on average 4lbs below his 1st crop and his progeny are also rated about 4lbs lower whereas Kingman's mares were also between 4 & 5lbs lower but his progeny are only 1lb behind. Whilst I understand that the higher the quality of mare is likely to lead to progeny with higher ratings, it clearly is easier to increase from ratings of 50 to 60 than 70 to 80 and with Kingman having a better mare quality over No Nay Never of around 13lbs I would expect his progeny to be around 4lbs or so higher vs the 3lbs better in the chart. That is not a huge difference but still makes me conclude that NNN is ahead of the game in this 2018 sire class.

            Sea The Moon (STM) also visited a lower quality of mare (recurring theme this one!) by around 5lbs to be almost on a par with NNN but his offspring are 2lbs or so behind that sire and around 6lbs behind Kingman. However, if his progeny repeat the second season performance of the 1st crop in 2020 STM could end up within a couple of pounds of Kingman despite the lower mare quality. An excellent 1st year for his 2nd crop and better than his 1st crop who nevertheless have ended up as the third best bunch of racehorses from sires in this cohort. At £15,000 vs the cover fees of the other two which are 10 times higher it is obvious to me that STM is by far the best value in this 2018 group. Of course he has the millstone around his neck of being a middle distance horse, but then so is Galileo! We are sending our Group 3 winning mare Birthstone to him in 2020.

            Charm Spirit received a quality of mare more or less the same as for his 1st crop and his progeny scored 1lb or so better to be joint second best with NNN although his mares were 8lbs better than that sire.I think he has not done too badly and the drop in fee looks quite high, but he clearly needs a few top performers to give him that positive boost in 2020. He has a much higher proportion of French foals in his 2nd crop as he was based at Haras De Bonneval and it's noticeable that whilst he still had a high proportion of 2yo progeny running in 2019 at 59% this is 12% less than his 1st crop when he was based in the UK at Tweenhills. This may not be due to anything in particular but I suspect there is a tendency to give horses more time in France and we may see a much better second year performance from this 2nd crop than the 1st crop. Whatever, I think he is good value at £8,500.

            Toronado has produced racehorses with the same average rating as his 1st crop from a 1lb or so inferior mare group and once more is slightly north of the trend-line which is positive. On the other hand, his 1st crop had 5 black type placed horses whereas this time around he has none so he may not do quite so well in his 2nd year with this crop. It is hard to be very enthusiastic about him although at €8,000 he is reasonably priced.

            Australia also covered a book of mares some 6lbs lower in ratings but his progeny achieved a rating of 1lb better. Furthermore only 36% of his 2nd crop ran so there may be a few stars still to uncover and, of the ones who did run, he has some good ones in Group 3 winner and Group 1 4th Cayenne Pepper as well as listed winners Mohican Heights and King Carney. His 1st crop improved 6lbs or so in their 2nd year and if his 2nd crop do the same I would think he'll end up around the trend-line which basically says he is doing what he should be doing. Again I find it hard to be over enthusiastic about his long term prospects although I rate his chances of getting a top performer higher than most.

            Olympic Glory - Covered a book of mares 4lbs inferior and the progeny were 5lbs inferior which suggests they were not so good although the run % was only 37%, much lower than the 51% of his first crop, so maybe we will see a few hidden gems come out in 2020. Not a sire I will be running after.

            Slade Power - He was sent a bunch of mares 7lbs inferior to his 1st crop and they performed 4lbs worse. On both occasions he is well below the trend-line and despite the emergence of double Group 2 winner (Queen Mary & Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes) Raffle Prize in this crop, he is not one for me.

            Mukhadram - Pretty much the same progeny result from the same level of mare in this 2nd crop. My worry with him is that it will take too long for the offspring to mature, and I am not just thinking 3yos, as his 1st crop did not improve very much on average. Shame as I like him as a horse and I hope I am wrong but he is up against it.

            The Rest - Better result for Garswood as from a group of mares 5lbs inferior his offspring were 1-2lbs better. The 1st crop did not progress so much and whilst his 2nd crop appear more promising there were no black type performers. He is now off to France from Cheveley Park. Bungle Inthejungle covered mares 2lbs inferior from his 1st crop yet his progeny were 3lbs better which augurs well for his 2nd crop. He came up with a good one in his 1st crop in Rumble Inthejungle and again he has another top one in Group 2 Lowther Stakes winner Living In The Past in his 2nd crop. That gives some hope for the future and maybe he will do better with better mares down the track following his cover fee hike in 2019 which is maintained in 2020. Whilst Coach House got some airplay from the performances of Summer Sands I do not see him or any of the others having a lasting impact on the breed although they are probably all capable of "getting a good one".

            In summary I think the 2nd crop results indicate that the outstanding sires of this generation will be No Nay Never, Kingman and Sea The Moon. Let's see!


Jim Atkinson

James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd

29th January 2020

























In their second crops, Kingman's progeny rated around 3lbs better from a 13lbs better group of mares which, whilst not so obvious still puts No Nay Never ahead when comparing to the trend-line.


but No Nay Never having 10 black type performers versus Kingman's 7 in the 2nd crop.

His second crop look even better as from a group of mares some 5lbs lower than his 1st crop they are on average 2lbs better and are 4th best from the 5th highest group of mares. That is some performance for a horse whose best form was between 10 and 12 furlongs and whose progeny you would expect to improve at three years old significantly more than most of the progeny of other sires. His second crop is repeating the medicine being 2lbs better than Australia and 7lbs better than Mukhadram from mares 6lbs worse and 2lbs better respectively. The repetition of the 1st crop performance with a largely different group of mares is solid evidence that Sea The Moon is way ahead of the game for a middle distance sire and  is proving that he can inject plenty of speed into his offspring.His 2nd crop is some 6lbs down on ratings to Kingman's from a 13lbs inferior bunch of mares but with the likely year 2 improvement in this crop I would expect his progeny to be within 2 or 3lbs of Kingman by this time next year.