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2017 First Season Sires - 2nd Crop 1st Year

Note that Declaration of War moved to a stud in the USA and has been excluded from this analysis after his 1st Crop as, on review, it is likely that the progeny ratings are skewed to the high side.          


            Odd set of results to say the least from the 2017 First Crop Sires with their second crops in 2018 when measuring progeny performance against quality of mare covered. About half the sires were quite consistent with what their 1st crop had done in its 1st year but the other half were completely different although some may be just because they had smaller crops and runners on the track. As I have said before, I do not think this sire year is a particularly hot bunch and the 2nd crop has done nothing to change my opinion on that as yet. So who were the best performers?

Dawn Approach - His 1st crop has disappointed in its 2nd year but he shows up better this time around with the best progeny performers from the fourth best bunch of mares. The quality of his 2nd crop mares dipped 5lbs whereas his progeny performed only 1lb worse but we will need to see proof that they train on and he does not repeat the fall off we saw last year. 43% of his potential runners ran versus 47% last year which is quite consistent. However, he did get two black type winners in Irish Group 2 winner Madhmoon rated 114 and French Listed winner Second Generation whereas he got none at this stage last year. Nothing outstanding but better.

Camelot - Once again one of the leading sires of this 2017 class although his progeny ratings were 1.5lbs worse on a 2lbs better quality of mare. He only had 46% of runners this year against 55% last year which may explain the slightly worse results as less 2yo offspring got to the track in 2018 than in 2017. 46% is not a bad % for a 10-12 furlong horse in the juvenile year and I would be surprised if Camelot did not demonstrate a similar strong improvement in 2019 with his 3yos as he did with his 1st crop this year. He repeated his feat of two black type winners namely Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud winner Wonderment who must surely come into the reckoning for the Derby classics next year and Listed winner Arthur Kitt who also ran an excellent fourth In the Group 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and is rated 109. He also has Pink Dogwood who came a very close 5th in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac and for sure he will have a few others to break through at the longer distances.

Society Rock - His 2nd crop progeny were 0.5lbs better than the 1st crop from a quality of mare almost exactly the same and 66% of his potential runners ran versus 65% last year. Shumookhi, won a listed race at Newbury and was top rated at 104 and he could develop into a more than useful 3yo sprinter. Meanwhile The Mackem Bullet ran an excellent second in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes and reached a rating of 111 after running a creditable sixth over a mile behind the runaway winner Newspaperofrecord in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Mile. Another couple of sprinters in Concierge and Quiet Endeavour won four races apiece and both exceeded a rating of 100 to further demonstrate Society Rock's ability to produce fast racehorses.

Red Jazz - Certainly the surprise package on paper of this crop to date with the sixth best ratings from the worst set of mares. His quality of mare dropped 7lbs versus his 1st crop but his progeny have scored an average of 2lbs higher in this 2nd crop. However, we need to be cautious as he only had 14 runners versus 60 at this stage of his 1st crop and it is likely he is flattered by the numbers. Whatever, the Italians seem to like the sire and he has had a good number of winners and placed horses there in both years including listed placed Pacifica in 2018.


What of the others?

Intello - Along with Farhh, Intello had a poor year with his progeny rating a full 9lbs lower than his 1st crop from a mare quality more or less the same. As he only had 28% of runners (45% in 2017) we have to be cautious and it may be that his offspring improve leaps and bounds in 2019 as they become ready to perform to their ability on the racetrack. Having said that he has not had any black type performers whereas he had three in 2017 at the end of his 1st crop's two year old season and he only covered 58 mares in 2018 which is a decline from early books.

Farhh - His progeny ratings dropped 18lbs whilst his mare quality dropped 6.5lbs after his 1st crop had done so well from only 30 runners. The 2nd crop was also small with 35 potential runners and only 11 of these ran so again we need to be careful as a few top performers (as he achieved with his 1st crop) can rectify this crop's low rating fairly quickly. However, as with Intello, he had three stakes performers at this stage with his 1st crop including two winners but his 2nd crop has none to date. Regarding the drop in mare quality, this could be related to his low fertility as people sent fewer good mares to him although I note he covered 76 mares in 2018 as they cope with his fertility issues.

Havana Gold - the bare numbers do not speak too well of his 2nd crop which was 2.6lbs worse on a mare band 2.5lbs worse. In terms of stakes horses he only had a couple of Listed placed horses of which one was in Germany and there was nothing of the calibre of stakes winners Havana Grey or Treasuring in this 2nd crop. In his defence he had only 42 runners as against 66 the year before and that together with the lower quality of mare will make it more of a struggle until he gets the bigger crops at the 2018 cover fee of £15,000 on to the racetrack in 2021. He had 182 recorded coverings in 2018 at his higher fee which is encouraging for connections. Positive was the 70% runner rate which was the highest of the 2017 sire class following on from his 63% last year.

Lethal Force - in rather similar fashion to Havana Gold his mare quality declined 2.5lbs for this 2nd crop whilst his progeny scored 3.4lbs worse. His crop also declined and he had 44 runners against 62 in his 1st crop year whilst the runner rate maintained high at 60% from 62% the year before. He only had one stakes horse being Konchek who finished 2nd behind Advertise in the Group 2 July Stakes and reached a rating high of 106. He will need his first two crops to pick up smartly in 2019 and/or have a better third crop or he may well be on his way out of Cheveley Park. He covered 67 mares in 2018 and his fee was cut to £4,500 for 2019 from £8,000 and a high of £12,500 and market sentiment is not strong for him.

Cityscape/Epaulette/Swiss Spirit and Most Improved - Cityscape's crop and runners halved and his runners went down 4lbs whilst mare quality slumped 8lbs. Whilst he has a decent one in Urban Icon rated 96 and his 1st crop did ok he looks to have a tough future although he did cover 72 mares in 2018. Epaulette had a bad year with his runners ratings slumping 9lbs off an almost 3lbs better book of mares. Not surprisingly perhaps he is not standing in Europe in 2019 after only 32 recorded coverings in 2018. Swiss Spirit also saw his progeny ratings drop 5.7lbs whilst mare quality went up 2lbs and he is off to Batsford Stud for 2019 at a reduced fee of £3000. Most Improved also had a 3lb decline in progeny ratings with a 2lbs decline in mare quality and had no recorded coverings in 2018. None of these four stallions had a stakes horse in their 2nd crop and I doubt whether any of them will make an impact in the Northern Hemisphere although Epaulette has done better in the Southern Hemisphere.



            The class of 2017 is not very distinguished in my opinion apart from Camelot who could make a lasting impact in the development of the pedigree. Intello may bounce back with this 2nd crop in its 2nd year as may Farhh as they both had decent 1st crops and with low numbers having represented their 2nd crops to date there is a chance things will change significantly during 2019. Dawn Approach may also do better as well this year after a disappointing 1st crop whilst I feel that Havana Gold will have to wait out until his better mare crops hit the racetrack before we know whether he will make it long term. As we already have a yearling of his and hope to have one of his 2019 foals this Spring I hope he makes it and he will certainly have both numbers and better mare quality together with his apparent ability to pass on soundness to help him.  Lethal Force may do better but with Society Rock having passed away and the rest looking to have a tough time of it I find it hard to be very positive about any sire beyond Camelot in this class of 2017 although Havana Gold may still make the grade