2016 First Season Sires 3rd Crop Year 2
It is interesting to note that the majority of this first bunch of first season sires that I started to analyse in 2016 are following a similar pattern in their 3rd crop as for the first two when looking at progeny results from the first two years on the racetrack. Frankel continues in splendid isolation, rather like his win in the 2,000 Guineas, absolutely miles clear of the rest in terms of quality of mare sent to him, progeny results and well north of the trend-line (although Power has thrown us a curve ball this year but more on that later). Having said that, it is Frankel's worst year so far with "only" 15 black type performers versus 25 garnered in each of his first two crops after two years. However, he has scored the highest % of runners to race at 76% which supports him as a sire who not only gets high performance but one who gets generally physically good specimens able to cope with the rigours of training and racing.
Bated Breath certainly had a Lazarus year having an outstanding Royal Ascot with winners Biometric, Space Traveller and Daahyeh giving him the all important fuel to raise his market profile which was on rather shaky ground in 2018. The first two mentioned are part of this 3rd crop and this is his best crop to date of those analysed being 3 to 4 lbs better than his 1st crop off a mare quality 5lbs lower. His second crop were somewhere in the middle and it is clear that he has an emerging profile which is not something often seen in a game that quickly discards apparent failures. Fortunately for Bated Breath he is managed by Juddmonte and they have been patient with him and kept faith that he would turn around a moderate start to his stallion career. As with Frankel, Bated Breath's progeny have a consistently good run rate a fact he has shown again with this crop after two years.
Power's first two crops have been below the trend-line and this 3rd crop comes off the back of a group of mares some 9-10lbs below those first crops yet it is by far his best crop with five 90+ rated progeny out of 19 runners. These are headed by 98 rated California Love who was listed placed in France in December, Power Best who was 4th in a French Listed event and three others rated in the 90's in Pass The Vino, El Guanche and Good Complicity. We have to be a bit careful as he has not had so many runners so this could be a blip in the analysis rather than an indication of consistent future form as a sire. Nevertheless you cannot detract from the very good quality of his runners from a significantly lower quality group of mares which mean that Power has the 3rd highest rated progeny from the 13th highest quality mares which is no mean feat.
After Power, whose progeny improved on average by approx. 8lbs in this 2nd year and Bated Breath and Frankel, whose progeny improved by 5lbs and 4lbs respectively, we find Mayson with 4.5lbs improvement and Sir Prancealot with 3lbs better. These two are consistently doing well and have been north of the trend-line with their first three crops after two years of each crop. Sepoy also improved 4lbs but this was from a very low 1st year level and he remained well below the trend-line after two years.
Nathaniel continues to disappoint for me with this third crop improving around 1lb only in year 2 which is low for what you would expect of a sire with horses who get more distance and need more time. Sure he got five additional black type performers in year 2, and of course has top racemare Enable as his shining light, but overall I feel he has been disappointing considering he has the second best bunch of mares to help him.
As usual Elzaam, Dragon Pulse and Requinto have produced a solid set of numbers that show they are doing the job one would expect of them without being shining stars but at the end of the day it is clear that Frankel is the number one of this 2016 year of new stallions and for me that Mayson, Bated Breath and Sir Prancealot are the value options. Given that Sir Prancealot has moved to California, I would be looking at Mayson and Bated Breath as real options for European breeders on a budget from this cohort of stallions. In fact I have one already booked for Bated Breath!
Jim Atkinson
James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd
7th February 2020
