Elzaam Breaks Out
Below is my analysis of the 3rd crop of the 2016 First Season Sires comparing progeny performance in relation to quality of mare covered. Each stallion has the following information after his name on the chart:-
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preferred distance as a racehorse
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height in hands
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% of potential runners who raced
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Number of potential runners (may change slightly from one year of analysis to another as potential runners are identified and/or those who have died without running have been removed)
- Number of black type winners & placed
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Covering fee in 2015 in £000
A surprise package in the first year of the 3rd crop of the 2016 class with Elzaam's progeny posting average ratings 7lbs and 8lbs respectively better than his first two crops in their first years and having the second best performance rating from the 13th best cohort of mares. No black type performers but a group of well rated offspring such as Mackqeez, You Never Can Tell, Dumouriez, Playa Del Puente, Fastman and Prince Elzaam. Playa Del Puente, out of a Galileo mare, has won two of his three races for Mick Halford in Ireland, is rated 98 and could be the best of these. Mackqeez ran a very good 5th in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes with a RP rating of 99 on only his second start and should become a stakes performer at three. Considering Elzaam only has around 50 potential runners in this crop, he has produced some good ones belying the relatively low level of mare he covered. He is not one that you hear much about but Elzaam had many more foals in both 2017 and 2018 and should two or three of the above mentioned 2016 crop progress well in 2019, the Ballyhane Stud based sire could look like very good value at €4,000.
It is a pleasure to be highlighting a different horse but inevitably we come back to Frankel who for the third consecutive crop is showing a very strong performance in this analysis being 4lbs or so above the trendline with an average progeny rating in line with his 1st crop and a couple of lbs behind his 2nd crop after their first year. Only three stakes performers so far from this crop versus seven and five respectively in his prior crops so perhaps this is not going to be his best crop to date although his offspring to date have reached 25 black type performers after two years so we can expect to see 20 or so stakes performers coming through in 2019. Enough said!
Interesting to note that we see many of the same sires above the trendline in this crop as with the two before it with Sir Prancealot, Mayson, Dragon Pulse and Elzaam, as well as Frankel, all appearing above the trendline for the third consecutive crop in their first year. There are also six sires who have been consistently below or on the trendline being Nathaniel, Sepoy, Harbour Watch, Casamento, Born To Sea and Delegator. Of these, only Nathaniel maintains a prominent Northern Hemisphere market position with Sepoy returned to Australia, Casamento back in Ireland after a year in Sweden and now aimed at the dual purpose market, Born To Sea off to France after covering ten mares in 2018, Harbour Watch retired and Delegator passed away. Nathaniel's 3rd crop has started better than his 2nd and undoubtedly will post another strong gain in its second year and have some top performers but I continue to comment that overall he does not do enough given the quality of mare he covers.
Of the others, Bated Breath, Requinto and Excelebration have all started well with this crop. Excelebration has covered a group of mares 5 to 6lbs below the quality of his first two crops yet the progeny performance has been the best for a first year. As his offspring have shown improvement in both prior crops in their second year we can expect to see a few good performers coming out of this crop.
Please see the tab 2016 First Season Sires for my overall analysis and comments regarding this stallion class for its first three crops.
Jim Atkinson
James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd
1st February 2019