2016 First Season Sires 2nd Crop Year 3

            Continuing my analysis of the 2016 first season sires, the 2nd crop have now reached three years on the track and, as happened with the 1st crop, there were no huge changes in the graph below from the end of the 2nd year. Frankel continues to dominate and this is his best crop of his first three crops in terms of average progeny rating compared to quality of mare being some 8lbs above the trend-line which is some performance by the son of Galileo. He gets a consistently high % of his runners on the track and, as I do not want to repeat what I have already said in other reports on this 2016 stallion cohort, he is simply the best! 

            Ok but Frankel costs £175,000 a pop Jim so what about the others?

Mayson - From the 13th best quality group of mares he has produced the second best group of runners and finished around 6lbs above the trend-line which indicates approximately where he should be all things being equal. He has finished above the trend-line after two years in his first three crops and is consistently adding value to the quality of mare he is covering which is below 80 rated apart from his first crop. At a cover fee of £5,000 for 2020 Mayson represents excellent value.

Bated Breath - He continues to show up a couple of pounds above the trend-line and had a spectacular Royal Ascot in 2019 with three top winners. Worth Waiting won the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes and Bated Breath has one of the highest rates of runners of this cohort of stallions with 84% having raced. This 2nd crop has performed better than his 1st crop which was formed from a group of mares on average 5lbs better. His offspring appear to have good temperaments and it was no surprise that Juddmonte increased his fee for 2020 to £12,500 on the back of an improving backdrop to this stallion. His 3rd crop are doing even better and I continue to recommend Bated Breath as a very good value sire to consider.

Sir Prancealot - With the highest rate of runners in this cohort at 88% and continuing his position well north of the trend-line this sire continues to punch above his weight. Now based in Southern California at $15,000 for 2020 he is not so accessible to European breeders and I think he is one who has been largely missed by the breeding community as he has consistently improved his mares. 

Of the others, a word for Dragon Pulse, Requinto (now standing in Italy) and Elzaam who are all north of the trend-line as they have been in their first three crops. Again, they have consistently shown that they do well with a relatively low level of mare and at €6,000, €4,000 and €4,000 respectively for 2020 they are worth considering.

            In summary, no great surprises from Year 2 to Year 3 for this 2nd crop but a confirmation of certain stallions (Mayson, Bated Breath and Sir Prancealot) as value makers and of a certain Frankel as being a top sire all round. 

Jim Atkinson

James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd

7th February 2020