One swallow does not make a summer and one crop does not make a stallion either! Following the analysis of the 2016 First Season Sires 1st crop I have also analysed their 2nd crop in the same way to look for confirmation or otherwise about which stallions of this 2016 class are most likely to succeed and be around with us for the long term. Below you can find the analysis plotting average runner rating against average mare rating for the 2nd crop who were two years old in 2017. Nine of the 17 sires turn up in approximately the same place as for their 1st crop in relation to the trendline, four were significantly positive and four significantly negative. Below is the chart showing this 2nd crop and you can see the 1st crop 1st year chart under the tab 2016 First Season Sires - 1st Crop 1st Year
2016 First Season Sires 2nd Crop 1st Year as at Dec 31st 2017
Same Again
Of those who were more or less in the same place I have included Frankel whose 2nd crop maintained his position as the outstanding sire of the 2016 graduates. Typically though, Frankel never seems to do things by halves and whilst remaining head and shoulders above the rest he extended his distance above the trendline from 4lbs to 7lbs. Phenomenal!
Also standing out as repeat positive performers are Mayson (4lbs above trendline vs 3lbs for 1st crop) and Sir Prancealot (2lbs vs 2lbs). Elzaam, Foxwedge, Excelebration, Helmet, Power and Casamento had 2nd crops who performed as a bunch in a remarkably similar way to their 1st crops all being very close to the trendline indicating a decent performance but not one likely to support them as long lasting successful stand-out sires.
Improvers
During the earlier part of 2017 the market was questioning Bated Breath as his first crop did nothing special and indeed disappointed at three on the whole although our very own Ekhtiyaar did well and reached a rating of 100! However, Bated Breath's 2nd crop look to be a different kettle of fish led by Beckford and Gavota and the sire's 2nd crop ended up 4lbs above the trendline in 2017. Dragon Pulse's offspring also consistently performed very well matching Bated Breath from a similar level of mare after also finishing in positive territory with his first crop in 2016. Eyecatchingly Born To Sea finished on the trendline which was a big improvement on the 2016 crop and very good for a 12f horse. If he can match the second term improvement his 1st crop showed then he will be significantly above the trendline and starting to live up to the Urban Sea legend. Finally, Delegator's 2nd crop performed well at 1lb above the trendline which was much better than his 1st crop who were bottom of the pile.
Sliders
Whilst not a surprise that his 2nd crop is in negative territory after their first year, the start made by Nathaniel's 2nd crop was poor to say the least and they finished 10lbs below the trendline versus 3lbs down for his 1st crop. If his 1st crop is anything to go by we can expect a significant improvement in that position as we go through the three year old career of his 2nd crop. Nevertheless, this type of analysis shows the dangers of over-focusing on star offspring like Enable as there are plenty who, if not just unready, are unable it would seem with 43% of his 2nd crop getting a run in which is more than his 1st crop achieved. From the second best bunch of mares Nathaniel's 2nd crop performed the second worst of these 17 sires.
Sepoy's 2nd crop slid to 4lbs below the trendline versus his 1st crop being on the trendline, Harbour Watch was 3lbs down versus 1.5lbs down for his 1st crop and Requinto could not repeat his 1st crop's performance when his 2nd crop came in at 2lbs below the trendline fully 8lbs worse than his 1st crop achieved.
Jim Atkinson
James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd
25th March 2018