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Frankel Keeps His Distance


            The first crop of the 2016 class of First Season Sires (FSS) has now completed three years on the racetrack and below you can see for the Northern Hemisphere how 17 stallions in the UK and Ireland have performed with regard to their progenies' average rating in relation to the average rating of the mares covered. Each stallion has the following information after his name on the chart:-

  1. preferred distance as a racehorse

  2. height in hands

  3. % of potential runners who raced

  4. Number of potential runners (may change slightly from one year of analysis to another as potential runners are identified and/or those who have died without running have been removed)

  5. Number of black type winners & placed
  6. Covering fee in 2013 in £000

            Clearly Frankel has maintained his position well clear of the field having produced an impressive 23 black type winners which is around one third of black type winners for all 17 stallions. Clearly he had by far the best mares but the graph and its trendline below demonstrate that he has done extremely well with what he has produced with them and, as I have been saying for the past two years, he has made up into a top stallion. 

            One of the interesting aspects of doing this analysis was to gauge how horses developed over time and we would expect the middle distance performers to improve from two to three and then three to four years old. I have re-produced the chart for the end of the 2nd year below the one for the 3rd year and you can see how each stallion has moved. Surprisingly the charts look remarkably similar and horses like Nathaniel and Born To Sea have barely budged from their position a year ago. A couple like Excelebration and Dragon Pulse have moved up a notch or two but in general there has not been so much movement in the chart from the 2nd year to the 3rd. This may be because most of the potential runners who are going to make the track have done so by the end of their three year old career and also that, unfortunately, most do not go on to better things!

            Please see the tab 2016 First Season Sires for my overall analysis and comments regarding this stallion class for its first three crops.


Jim Atkinson

James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd 

1st February 2019