this analysis shows how the 2016 first season sire first crop progressed in relation to quality of mare covered in their second year as three year olds in 2017. The analysis of this crop's first year in January 2017 showed that Frankel was going to be a star as a stallion and that he improved his mares even though he had by far the best quality cohort of mares in his first season. Requinto, Mayson and Sir Prancealot also stood out as new sires who improved their mares. Delegator, Nathaniel and Born To Sea were the three stallions who were well below the trendline although in the case of the latter two with their record as racehorses over twelve furlongs this was hardly surprising and I concluded that Nathaniel would have a Lazarus year in 2017 and that he was together with Frankel and Mayson part of the three most likely to succeed based on one year's evidence.
Below is the chart for 2017 plotting average runner rating against average mare rating and it is interesting to note that 10 of the 17 sires ended up in more or less the same position as this crop had finished in 2016 (see chart for 2016 under tab 2016 First Season Sires - 1st crop 1st year). So here are my comments sire by sire:-
2016 First Season Sires 1st Crop in 2nd Year (2017)
Frankel - His progeny actually improved from 4lbs above the trendline to 5lbs above and he ended up clearly the best sire. In my view this is an awesome performance given the level of runner rating he needed to achieve on such a highly rated band of mares.
Requinto - perhaps unsurprisingly due to his 15.2 hands size and sprinting prowess his first crop slipped back from a position 6lbs superior to the trendline to only 3lbs better. Nevertheless a very good performance for his first crop.
Sir Prancealot - his first crop did well in 2016 and more than maintained their position in 2017 developing slightly better against the trendline showing that they demonstrated an ability to improve well as three year olds relative to all the others.
Mayson - slightly disappointing as I was expecting to see more than average improvement from 2 to 3 for this sire's offspring given that he performed best as a 4 year old. In fact they went backwards from 3lbs higher to only 1.5lbs higher than the trendline. Still positive but....
Bated Breath - disappointing first crop that went from slightly under the trendline to 3lbs below in 2017. As for Mayson, I was expecting improvement from a sire who did not run at two and showed his best form later on in his career.
Nathaniel - as expected his first crop moved up a gear or two at three years old none more so than the outstanding filly Enable. Having said that he only improved 2.5lbs and remained slightly below the trendline so not quite a Lazarus year. I expect him to break into positive territory in 2018 with this crop.
Born To Sea - the sire whose 1st crop improved the most in 2017 relative to the trendline, improving 4.5lbs with Sea Of Gracebeing one of a number of very good performers. As for Nathaniel, this 12f performer still finds himself below the trendline around 2lbs under.
Sepoy - disappointing 2017 as his 1st crop slipped from just above the trendline to 2.5lbs below.
Excelebration, Power, Foxwedge, Dragon Pulse Elzaam, Casamento Helmet, Harbour Watch and Delegator all ended up 2017 approximately in the same position as 2016 as their 1st crop generally progressed averagely as three year olds.
Jim Atkinson
James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd
25th March 2018