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Be Fair Steps Up

Posted 9/5/2022

            It's 2 years since his last win, but Be Fair won over 14 furlongs at Wolverhampton with an impressive finishing burst. He travelled well but looked to have plenty to do entering the straight. Nevertheless he found the necessary acceleration and won by 1.25 lengths with the 3rd 6 lengths behind. 

Be Fair wins at Wolves under Hollie DoyleBe Fair wins at Wolves under Hollie Doyle

He is our third winner of the season with all three winners coming in the last three weeks. He is by Kyllachy out of Going For Gold, who provides the stamina, and after being sold to BBA Ireland for 36k guineas at the 2017 Book 2 he ran three times in Ireland without success before coming back to the UK to be trained by Tony Carroll. 

            The win last Friday was his fourth and he has reached a high rating to date of 69. He has two siblings in Chicadoro and Kaanoon who have reached levels of around 100 and the latter has a full 2yo sister, Mellow Mood (by Bated Breath), in training with Sylvester Kirk.                                                                                                                                                                              

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Lighting Up The Season

Posted 4/5/2022

 

            A decent start to the 2022 flat season for James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd bred horses. In North America, Gift List kicked things off with a very good 4th in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream Park beaten 3 lengths by subsequent Grade 1 winner Regal Glory. Gift List had been off the track for 8 months so connections must have been pleased with that effort. She subsequently came 8th in another G3 which was slightly disappointing although only 4.5 lengths behind the winner. Nevertheless she is showing up well in stakes races in the USA and adding to the popularity of Bated Breath progeny in that country.

            Talking of Bated Breath, Ekhtiyaar ran four times in the UAE during January and February. Three of the races were Listed and he did not run badly, but he is 8 years old now and his performances perhaps indicated that his best days, including a rating of 112, are behind him. Twilight Son winning at Newmarket 5f 14 April 2022Twilight Son winning at Newmarket 5f 14 April 2022

            Over to Europe, and our first winner in 2022 came with Twilight Calls winning a class 3 over 5f at Newmarket in April in very comfortable fashion. He has always been a strong travelling horse but sometimes hasn't finished off his races as well as he promised and connections decided to geld him after the 2021 season. Whilst I am sure that trainer Henry Candy would have been dreaming of TC following in the steps of his sire Twilight Son and grand sire Kyllachy as the next sire in line, he looked convinced in a post race interview that the horse has improved since that operation and they subsequently entered him for his first black type race in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day. He ran very well and seemed a little unfortunate to be drawn on the wing and then get carried a bit wider by Whenthedealisdone to be beaten only 1.25 lengths by Khaadem. Subsequently it turned out that over the three day meeting nearly 50% of winners on the straight course in 19 races came from stall 1 or 2 and none were drawn higher than 7 which indicates a draw bias which Twilight Calls (drawn 12) could not overcome. He has been uprated from 100 to 104 and I personally think he is a couple of lengths better than that at 110. Connections seem to share this thought process as he has now been entered for the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock and then the Group 1 King Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. Clearly both races are a stretch but it would not surprise me to see him go close in at least the former race if he gets good or firmer ground.

Moonlight Frolic back home after her win at Thirsk over 1 mile on 25th April 2022Moonlight Frolic back home after her win at Thirsk over 1 mile on 25th April 2022

            Moving on from the twilight to the moonlight and we did not have to wait long for winner number two when at the end of April Moonlight Frolic caught War of Words on the line over a mile at Thirsk. This was the filly's second outing after a good introduction at Kempton in December where she came 6th in a maiden. As at Kempton, she managed to find a bit of trouble in running but this time had enough to overcome that and win on the line. The time was not fast and hard to know what she beat although War Of Words on debut had beaten subsequent Listed Pretty Polly 3rd Crenelle in her previous run. The RPR was only 69 which I think is a bit low. We'll see but no doubt that trainer Amy Murphy think that the filly will rate a lot higher as she has entered Moonlight Frolic for the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. Whilst MF looked to need every yard of the mile at Thirsk, twelve furlongs may be a bit far at this stage for a filly by Bated Breath (yes another one!) out of a Danehill Dancer mare that won over 5f. However, stranger things have happened! By the way, MF became our 5th runner by Bated Breath and 5th winner and hopefully will become our third black type performer. We have two 2yos by BB who may add to that tally. Mellow Mood is with Sylvester Kirk and First Page with Jean-Claude Rouget. We also have a colt yearling out of Redskin Dancer who we plan to sell later this year. 

Chirimiri in his box in La Teste de Buch after his run at Paris Longchamp on 1st May 2022Chirimiri in his box in La Teste de Buch after his run at Paris Longchamp on 1st May 2022

           After these two wins I was getting excited about our colt Chirimiri winning a 1400m €70k race at Paris Longchamp on May 1st. He had made his first run of the season at the backend of March at Fontainebleau and was only beaten a couple of lengths in a competitive 1200m race despite finishing 7th. He did not particularly appreciate the initial downhill section of the track and was stopped in his tracks when trying to get a run as well. Whilst the Paris race was 200m more than his ideal distance, Chirimiri has won over 1400m but on softer ground. The ground description was good to soft but I certainly did not see much soft around and no divots flying! Additionally he lost a shoe after 300m which unbalanced him a shade although I think the ground was the main reason he only finished 9th beaten 5 lengths. Whatever, we are still learning with him and trainer Christophe Ferland is now likely to race him at local track La Teste De Buch next up. We also entered him for the valuable Gran Premio Urquijo over 1100m in Madrid in June but we fear that the ground will be too firm for him. However, Madrid is on an elevated plain and as they sang in the musical My Fair Lady........"the rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain".............Having lived there for 9 years I am not sure that is true!

            Chirimiri's name describes a light rain that is seen in the northern parts of Spain so he has something in common with Twilight Calls and Moonlight Frolic. In terms of the European 2022 flat season things have started well and this trio certainly do not look light on ability to me. Fingers crossed I'm right!

 

            

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French Z's Leading The Way of 2021 First Season Sires

Posted 7/11/2021

                Early days, but I think that this cohort of FSS may not be that hot if I compare with how the 2020 cohort had done by this stage of the first season. New Bay had a progeny average of around 78 from a bunch of mares rated 83 or so which would have put him way ahead of this 2021 cohort. Territories’s progeny were rated just under 76 from mares rated 81 which would have put him a couple of pounds ahead of Zelzal whilst at the lower end, Mehmas’s progeny would have been about 8lbs higher than Ardad from a similar level of mares and Coulsty would have been well clear of both Cotai Glory and Ardad from an inferior book of mares. Perhaps last season’s FSS are very good but similar patterns emerge comparing to other cohorts from 2016 onwards and I do not see any excellent sires emerging right now in the Frankel, Kingman, Night Of Thunder or No Nay Never mould.Zarak owned by Aga Khan Studs at home at Haras De BonnevalZarak owned by Aga Khan Studs at home at Haras De Bonneval

               The two that have caught my eye the most so far are French based Zarak and Zelzal. The former is by Dubawi who we already knew was a great stallion before the last two nights when three of his progeny won Breeders’ Cup races! Add to the fact that the dam, Zarkava was an unbeaten 7-time winner, including the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, and you have a sire who is bred in the purple three times over. Not only that, but in his first season as a sire he has had 3 stakes horses, which is less than a few others but more than any other 10-12f horse and, incidentally, he only ran once as a 2yo so there should be plenty of scope for improvement of his offspring as 3yos. Zelzal did not run as a 2yo and, being by Sea The Stars, one would expect there to be plenty of scope for improvement as his progeny face longer distances from now until the end of their 3yo careers although he himself was a miler. His runners are rated 3rd best on average but from an average book of mares who are 15th best of these 23 sires in their first season with runners. His 2022 fee has already been announced as €15,000, up from €6,000 in 2021, which reflects this very good first year although I personally would have hoped they would have kept the fee to the €10-12k range.

               Caravaggio, who now resides in the USA, and Churchill have both started well and are currently joint top in terms of their runners’ ratings although Caravaggio’s mares are rated 1lb less and he has had 8 stakes performers versus Churchill’s 6. On the other hand, Churchill is a much bigger unit than Caravaggio (who was also a sprinter) and I would bet that Churchill’s progeny will progress more at 3yo. In conclusion, both are doing well but nothing out of the ordinary yet.

               Ulysses, like Zarak, stands at 16.1 hands and was a 10-12f horse who only appeared once as a juvenile. I think it is fair to say that he has made a good start with the prospect of a higher level of progeny improvement as they move through their 3yo careers.

               Ardad has been the early season talking horse and has produced a top class 2yo in Perfect Power who followed up his Prix Morny win by taking another G1 in the Middle Park Stakes. No doubt Ardad has done well with a low-level group of mares, but Mehmas did much better as I have pointed out already and Ardad has a lot of low level runners as well. Also, he did not train on very well and there must be a doubt as to whether this 1st crop will achieve much as 3yos outside of the few stakes horses that he has produced to date. In my opinion, this could be a classic case of over hyping of market sentiment that later leads to disappointment. His fee has been raised to £12,500 for 2022 so he will get better mares and perhaps that will help him in in 2025 but he may be following a similar path to Havana Gold following that sire’s first season success with Havana Grey.Zelzal owned by Al Shaqab at home at Haras De BouquetotZelzal owned by Al Shaqab at home at Haras De Bouquetot

               Of the others, I think that owners of two of the more expensive sires in Almanzor and Ribchester will be a little disappointed with their starts. Early days and reasonable starts but they have some catching up to do with Caravaggio, Churchill and Ulysses who also commanded around the same initial fee. Cotai Glory has made a good start from the worst set of mares and his runners are rated 9th best. He has also had 7 stakes horses which is impressive considering the low level of mare. Again, this points towards how well Coulsty was doing from the 2020 FSS as his progeny were 3lbs better on average than Cotai Glory from mares 6lbs worse. Ultra looks to have started well in terms of his position relative to the trendline but he has had few runners and that may be a false position. We will know more by the end of this year and the first few months of 2022. National Stud sires Aclaim and Time Test have also started quite well with the latter already registering 4 stakes winners. Given he was an 8-10f racehorse, I would not be surprised to see this son of Dubawi move up the rankings as this 2021 FSS cohort 1st crop moves forward. Another French sire, Al Wukair, is also showing promise and, whilst he has not had any stakes horses yet, he has a number who look useful and could progress. His fee for 2022 has been raised to €8,000 from €6,000 which indicates confidence in his start.

               No doubt we will see a few changes by the end of the year and going into 2022 but Zarak and Zelzal are the two who have caught my eye the most so far. Time will tell!

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Strong Sales

Posted 31/10/2021

            After a few rather poor years for sales results we have done much better this year and managed to sell all five yearlings on offer this year for an average of approximately £34,000 which is over three times the average cover fees. Equally satisfying are the homes that the five have gone to and we are very hopeful that they will have good, happy careers and be a source of pleasure to their new connections. The Twilight Son filly we sold in August for £70,000 we believe went to Lambourn based Clive Cox who knows all about sprinters and how to get the best out of them. In Book 2 we sold our Oasis Dream filly for 52,000 guineas and she will be the first horse we have bred to be stabled at trainer David Menuisier's establishment in Sussex. Going For Gold's Bated Breath filly went to another Lambourn based trainer in Sylvester Kirk for 2,500 guineas. The price was disappointing given her half sister was a black type performer and full brother had a top RPR of 103. However, it was clear on her physical and pedigree that she will need some time and the market doesn't particularly like waiting! We'll see, as Syl is a very good and experienced trainer and no doubt she will get every chance.Bated Breath x Aureana colt at the Deauville Yearling SaleBated Breath x Aureana colt at the Deauville Yearling Sale

            On to Deauville and we were thrilled not only to sell Aureana's Bated Breath colt for €40,000 but also that the purchaser was Jean Claude Rouget one of the top trainers around. As he is based in Pau, only 90 minutes car ride from where we live in Donostia-San Sebastian, it is quite possible we'll get a chance to see the colt race at a nearby track. Finally our Ultra filly sold for €10,000 to Marc Pimbonnet, a trainer based in Lyon. It is important for us that both French yearlings stay in France as they could win French Breeders Premiums for us down the road, something we haven't been able to do after seven years of trying mainly because the yearlings were sold to people who had them trained outside of France!

            The Yearling Sales in aggregate have been strong and in particular the rise in median prices which for me signifies a stronger middle market. This is welcome news to many breeders as are the clearance rates which were also strong. Clearly the recent passing of some very key industry players at Cheveley Park, Juddmonte and Shadwell was a concern running up to these sales but I think any drop in their buying activity was more than made up for with strong participation from abroad (in particular the USA) as well as UK and Irish players. Whilst Shadwell in particular, who also downsized at last week's Tattersalls Horses in Training Sale, it appears that they and the others will continue their activities although perhaps at a lower volume than before.                                                                                                                                                                       

Ultra x Lady Macha filly at Deauville Yearling SaleUltra x Lady Macha filly at Deauville Yearling Sale

                                                                            So, the show goes on and we will be selling our 3yo unraced filly Galerna at the Tattersalls December Mare Sale. She is a full sister to Chicadoro who, after winning at Haydock Park, was second in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket before being beaten just over 6 lengths in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. After that she was sold to race in the USA where she was a winner and has now ventured into her new career as a broodmare with a yearling filly by Kessaar before being covered by Kodiac last year. 

            Galerna is also a half sister to Aureana who has made a promising start to her broodmare career with the two foals to date including the Bated Breath colt we sold to Jean Claude Rouget in October. There will be plenty of action on the page between the three young sisters and could be a very astute purchase for someone!

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Yearling Sales

Posted 10/10/2021

            We have two yearlings for sale this week at Tattersalls in Newmarket and two next week at Arqana in Deauville. First up on Tuesday 12th October will be a February filly by Oasis Dream out of Redskin Dancer. She is half sister to seven times winner Lincoln Rocks who won a Listed race over a mile and also came 2nd in a Group 3 over 7 furlongs and had a top rating of 106. Lincoln Rocks herself is now a broodmare and her first foal by Churchill, also a filly (Lot 696), goes through the ring on the Monday whilst this filly does so on Tuesday as Lot 894. She also has a 3yo half brother by Territories called Chirimiri who is currently in training with Christophe Ferland in France and has won two races to date reaching a rating of 39.5 in kilos which is equivalent to 87 in lbs. He ran a very good 4th yesterday in a class 2 €50,000 1200m handicap at Chantilly beaten a length whilst finishing strongly in sticky ground. He will now go on a break and be brought back for a Spring 2022 campaign when we aim to go for a Listed race at some stage.  

Oasis Dream x Redskin Dancer 2020 filly being prepared for the Book 2 yearling saleOasis Dream x Redskin Dancer 2020 filly being prepared for the Book 2 yearling sale

She is a very strong filly as you can see in the picture and should be a sprinter around the 6f mark like Chirimiri. Sire Oasis Dream had a great day yesterday gaining his 18th Group 1 winner when Native Trail won the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket and has put himself up as the top 2yo in the UK in 2021. Oasis Dream has been a brilliant sire and is proving there is life in the old boy yet!

            On Friday in Book 3 we will be selling a Bated Breath (BB) filly out of Going For Gold who has already produced stakes placed Chicadoro and Kaanoon, who also happens to be a full brother to the filly. This is our 6th Bated Breath foal and the 4 to have run have yielded two stakes performers in Ekhtiyaar and Grade 2 winning Gift List as well as brother Kaanoon who was smart winning 3 of his 7 races and reaching an RPR of 103. The 4th was Kokocha who also won 3 races in France so that in total our BB foals have won 14 races from 50 runs and £664,300 with an average RPR of 99! The 5th foal is 2yo Moonlight Frolic who is in training with Amy Murphy and due to make a first appearance on the racecourse before year end, all being well. She is out of a half sister to the dam of Palace Pier so if a bit of her cousin's ability comes through she could be useful. I don't want to tempt fate, but she is progressing nicely and may well continue our BB run. 

            There is no doubt that this filly will need a bit of time, like Kaanoon who debuted at 3yo, but all good things come to he/she who waits!  

Bated Breath x Going For Gold 20f during sales preparation for Book 3 in October 2021Bated Breath x Going For Gold 20f during sales preparation for Book 3 in October 2021

                            The following week at Arqana on Wednesday 20th October (Lot 489) we will see BB number 7 who was foaled four days after number 6. He is out of Aureana who is half sister to the yearling filly in Book 3 and this yearling looks to be more of a 2yo which he probably gets from damsire Kyllachy's contooribution to his genes. His half sister is 2yo Pretty Persuasive by Footstepsinthesand, owned by Le Haras De La Gousserie who recently had a Group 1 winner in Rougir. She is due to make her first appearance at Chantilly on Wednesday over 1300m. This yearling looks very different from his BB auntie and very much in the up to a mile category of racer. 

Bated Breath x Aureana 20c in May 2021 at Haras De Logis, NormandyBated Breath x Aureana 20c in May 2021 at Haras De Logis, Normandy

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            Finally on Thursday we'll be selling via Haras De Logis, who are also selling the BB colt, an Ultra filly out of Lady Macha (Lot 595). This is her first foal. The dam is a full sister to Bartholomeu Dias who has won 5 races in the UK and Australia and holds some high level entries in Group 1 races like the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup although to be honest I think it's doubtful he will run in either race. Nevertheless, he has accumulated Aus$341k in his career to date and is clearly a smart racehorse. Lady Macha herself retired after a couple of placed efforts due to injury but had already demonstrated some ability. Likely this yearling filly will need a mile plus so don't expect to see her early on as a 2yo.

 

                So a very important couple of weeks that need to see some good sales and cash coming in to offset the cash that goes out on a daily basis! After the very good sale of our Twilight Son filly at the Goffs Premier Sale for £70,000 we are optimistic but, as we all know, these things can change in the bat of an eyelid.

Ultra x Lady Macha 20f in her Normandy field with her mates in May of this yearUltra x Lady Macha 20f in her Normandy field with her mates in May of this year

                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

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Chirimiri Loves Deauville

Posted 22/8/2021

            Chirimiri, our 2018 colt by Territories out of Namid mare Redskin Dancer, continued his upwardly mobile career and his love affair with Deauville when running a neck second to paternal half brother Mysterious Land at the coastal track yesterday. Whilst we could be somewhat disappointed that he just missed out on a second win at Deauville this month, we were very happy with the fact that he coped with the tough 4.5 kilo (11lbs) rise in his rating that the handicapper had given him. Chirimiri (No.4) 2nd at Deauville on 21 August over 1400mChirimiri (No.4) 2nd at Deauville on 21 August over 1400mHe was initially awarded 32 (70 in lb terms) in April after three runs and has now proven himself to be worthy of his current 39.5 (87) rating with this run. It's clear that when putting a horse into training there are a couple of key things to have in mind. First, how fast do you go with him/her? Quite a lot of horses never make the racetrack or never reach the level of innate ability they have and this could be down to pushing them too hard too soon. Secondly, take your time to get to know what your racehorse likes and dislikes when racing. Is there a preference for a certain type of going, racetrack, distance to run or tactics in running and what type, if any, of items of equipment help eg blinkers, visor or tongue tie?

            There is no doubt that we made the right decision with Chirimiri not to rush him with his racing and did this for a number of reasons. First, he was foaled on 28th April which makes him a relative youngster of his generation but perhaps more importantly was his physique which hinted at scope but did not shout out "I'm ready to rock!" when he was a two year old. His seven time winning half sister Lincoln Rocks, who also won a listed race, was much better at four years old and taking all these factors together we saw no reason to rush. Having said that, I think you have to give them some developmental exercise and not just leave them in the field until you decide to press on with getting them to the track. We sent him for a couple of months education and pre-training work before another spell in the field and then he was sent off to France with Christophe Ferland to start his career in September of 2020. 

Chirimiri in February 2021 at his stables in La Teste De BuchChirimiri in February 2021 at his stables in La Teste De Buch

Chirimiri made his debut in early March 2021 in a decent maiden at Chantilly on the all weather track over 1600m and ran decently to be 5th beaten 6 lengths. His second run was at local track La Teste De Buch, again over 1600m although this time on turf, and he ran a similar race in coming 4th beaten 5 lengths against decent types. At this point we were somewhat disappointed with his early efforts without being despondent but his third race was a worry as he trailed in 11th in an 1800m contest. It was at this point that we decided to try him over a shorter distance as he did not seem to relish going beyond 1400m in his races to date and that resulted in his first win when he trotted up in a 1400m handicap at Bordeaux where he was also held up versus running prominently. It was at this point that jockey Julien Augé suggested a straight course eg Deauville would suit as Chirimiri didn't like going around curves too much, and, after a fair run at Toulouse (with curves) under his new handicap mark of 35, he started his love affair with Deauville's straight track when running an excellent third in a competitive handicap over the shorter distance of 1300m. It was clear to us at this point that Chirimiri preferred shorter distances as well as the change in tactics of holding him up versus being up front which were first employed in his win at Bordeaux. It was also apparent that he preferred a bit of give in the ground although his win at Deauville over 1200m in early August was achieved on

Chirimiri at his stables in August 2021Chirimiri at his stables in August 2021ground described as good. Again he came from the back and won comfortably which probably explains why the handicapper gave him such a hefty rise of 4.5 kilos to 39.5. Subsequent events in his race yesterday at Deauville proved that the handicapper was not far off the mark although I still think he was harsh by a kilo or so. 

In conclusion, we have learnt a fair bit about Chirimiri and what he likes and doesn't like on the racetrack and physically he has developed tremendously over the previous six months as can be seen in the two photographs taken in February and August this year. Whilst photos quite often mislead due to their quality, angle taken, winter coat vs no coat and the light, it's clear that the horse below taken in August is a much stronger and imposing example than the one above taken in February. Whilst that is partially down to his natural growth pattern, it's also down to the regimen of training and racing that has developed his muscle condition and strength and possibly is something that would not have happened so well if we had put him in training 6 to 9 months earlier. We'll never know if that is a true conclusion of course, but I am a firm believer in letting nature take its course and not trying to force the pace. Ultimately the horse will tell you whether he/she is ready for a particular stage and it's up to the people looking after him/her to read the signals correctly. Hopefully we continue to read his signals correctly and Chirimiri goes on from being even more than the useful handicapper that he is today. We all know that patience is a virtue but listening is as well, oh and for Chirimiri, Deauville is the best!

 

Jim Atkinson

James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd 

22nd August 2021

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50 Wins Up on Twilight Calls Show

Posted 13/7/2021

            We started breeding 10 years ago and had our first runners and winners in 2013. Robynelle, by Royal Applause out of Chicita Banana, was the first to win a race albeit a modest 5f event at Carlisle for trainer Keith Dalgleish and ridden by Joe Fanning. Roll on eight years and Twilight Calls put up an impressive display to beat class 3 opposition at Newmarket on the July course under a confident ride by David Probert for trainer Henry Candy and owners Cheveley Park Stud to record a 50th win by James Ortega Bloodstock bred horses!Twilight Calls after his impressive win over 5f at Newmarket's July meetingTwilight Calls after his impressive win over 5f at Newmarket's July meeting

            Twilight Calls didn't have it all his own way as the improving King Of Stars forced him to put the pedal down although ultimately he won cosily with almost 4 lengths back to the third. The Racing Post subsequently gave Twilight Calls an RPR of 100 and today we will see what the official rating ends up at. I am expecting around 95 which means this son of Twilight Son has improved by 10lbs from 2yo to 3yo so far, which is around 11lbs less improvement than his sire showed by this stage of his 3yo career. Twilight Son won his next race, the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock in September over 6f to eventually improve by 34lbs in his sophomore year. Whilst Twilight Calls is about 9lbs behind his sire's official rating at this stage of his career he has clearly inherited a lot of the sire's ability and, whilst a G1 win this year is perhaps unlikely, he could be a serious player in stakes races by the end of the year.

 

            The best wins out of our 50 have been a Grade 2 in the USA by Gift List (Bated Breath x Birthstone 2018 filly), a couple of Group 3's in the UK by New Providence (Bahamian Bounty x Bayja 2012 filly) and a UK Listed event by Lincoln Rocks (Rock Of Gibraltar x Redskin Dancer 2013 filly). The former is currently running in the USA with trainer Brian Lynch whilst the other two are now broodmares. Certainly the 3 fillies have done us proud with those four stakes wins coming from 15 fillies we have bred who have run at least once and, as we have three or four by sires such as Oasis Dream, Bated Breath and Ultra scheduled to go through the yearling ring this autumn you have an opportunity to get one soon!

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Shalaa Shaking It Up

Posted 7/6/2021

 

            In my analysis of the runners of the 2020 First Season Sires (FSS) during their first year, I noted three stallions that had underperformed despite receiving some of the best mares in Shalaa, The Gurkha and Awtaad, and whilst Awtaad has had a couple of black type winners and The Gurkha a couple of stakes placed performers during the first 5 months of 2021, it's Shalaa who is making the most significant move upwards. That is what my updated analysis is telling me in terms of the increase in the average rating of the 2020 FSS' runners as they started their 3yo careers. The top 5 improvers in terms of their 1st crop average rating in lbs are:-

Shalaa                 +5.0             72% of potential runners have raced

Belardo                +4.2             67%        "                "                "

Goken                  +3.5             75%        "                "                "

Territories           +3.4             72%        "                "                "

Twilight Son        +3.0             76%        "                "                "

 

            King Shalaa won two races as a juvenile but stepped up on that when he won a Listed event at Cagnes Sur Mer although he did subsequently disappoint in a G3 on soft ground whilst No Speak Alexander did even better with a G3 win followed by an excellent third in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and is clearly Shalaa's best progeny to date. My Sea Cottage had an introductory run mid 2020 in the USA and then was put away for 7 months before making three appearances this year improving on each run which ended with a win at Gulfstream Park. It has been a similar story with Boomshalaa in the UK who was off the track 9 months after his debut and has then won two on the bounce for an RPR best of 96. There are a a few other examples at a more modest level that illustrate how Shalaa's runners are improving with time and experience which have all added to the overall rating average increase.

            Also it is noticeable that of his 19 runners who have made their debuts in 2021 there are at least six (Wadhnan, Talabaat, Miami Voice, Tawfan, Abraaj & Divertissement) who have ratings of 80+ including three above 90. That is another indication to me that the Shalaa offspring may not be ones to rush with and certainly much less precocious than those of eg Mehmas. On the face of it, that is quite surprising as Shalaa himself was precocious winning five times at 2yo between late May and Sept.

            Belardo did well with his 2yos in terms of getting four stakes winners but overall his record was slightly below what one would have expected given that he received average mares. The increase in 2021 is not particularly linked to the impact of his 11 new starters with the exception of Saboor who has achieved a 90+ rating in France but is traceable to a few that have improved markedly from 2 to 3yo. These include Chipie D'Irlande who, after coming a distant last in her debut in Italy back in May 2020, came out to win her maiden in January of this year and recently came 4th in a Listed event demonstrating significant improvement. Another is Abelard F who, after coming last in his debut in France in August 2020 reappeared in January of this year with a better run and has since been placed a couple of times as well as finishing 6th in a Listed event behind Saiydabad who was 4th in the Prix Du Jockey Club on Sunday. Overall, whilst the average runner rating is an improvement for Belardo, I do not see the same strength in depth of progression that I see for Shalaa.

            Goken's offspring made a quickfire impact in 2020 and then dropped off slightly although I still had him in my 6 to follow from this 2020 FSS group. Interestingly, he seems to have reversed that blip and from my perspective his offspring are obtaining ratings not far behind Mehmas from a similar level of mare. 75% of his potential runners have raced versus Mehmas at 78%, but Mehmas has 2.5 times the number of runners that Goken has and one has to be careful drawing conclusions from smaller sample sizes. Of his nine new runners this year Fang has won a couple of races and reached a rating of 92 whilst Kimina has been placed three times and top rated at 85. There are a fair few who have shown much improved form at 3yo including Lanaken who ran a couple of times at 2yo before reappearing on the track six months later in 2021 and recently came a close 4th in a Listed event in France. Pile Ou Face is another who has improved well to be rated in the high 80's and there are a number who have also improved (Golena, Cogolin, Gorgo, Singapore Trip) at a more modest level. All of that sways me towards the belief that Goken's progeny are not just fast out of the trap and that he is doing well. His issue is, and will be over the next couple of years, that the initial crop was not that big and indeed will be even smaller in his 2nd and 3rd crops although I note his 4th crop will be back to around the same level as his 1st crop following his successful first year in 2020.

            Territories continues to do well and has the highest average rating for his runners of this 2020 FSS group despite the fact that his mares are just a bit better than average. He himself improved at 3yo and he has a fair few showing improvement, including Mysterious Land in France who has risen to a rating of 96 and been placed 4th in a Listed event and Aldaary rated 105, but what is most noticeable to me is that of the 17 new runners in 2021 nine are rated 76+ including Laos 95, Invincible Light (France) 101 and Badlands 87. Our own Chirimiri made his debut in March in France and has shown ability, none more so than when winning at Bordeaux and reaching a rating of 77. We think there is more to come and hopefully he follows in the footsteps of his half sister Lincoln Rocks who improved markedly at 4yo reaching a rating of 106. Fingers crossed!

            Twilight Son's offspring have been winning races like nobody's business in 2021 and certainly people are comparing that with his own spectacular improvement from winning 2yo to Group 1 3yo. What I see are very few stand out improvers or newcomers but a very broad improvement at an often modest level. Twilight Spinner is the obvious exception making his debut in April before following up with a win and then a 6 length plus demolition job in a Listed race. Of those who ran in 2020, Warrior Within, who races in Italy, has improved steadily to reach 91 and has competed in stakes races on his last three appearances. Light Wakeup ran three times in the UK reaching a modest rating of 62 before being switched to France and given 7 months off racing only to return and reach a rating of 86. Our own Twilight Calls has won in 2021 and posted an RPR of 95 last week versus his best of 87 in 2020. For me, Twilight Son is demonstrating the broadest base of performance improvement from 2yo to 3yo so far of the 2020 FSS cohort although, it has to be said, his average remains some 6-7lbs behind Mehmas from a group of mares that demonstrated similar levels of ability on the racecourse.

            Mehmas himself continues to power on although the average increase was a much more modest 1.3lbs. He has contributed 7 of the additional 19 black type racehorses this group has achieved in 2021 which speaks a lot for his ability to get high level horses and no doubt keeps him up there as firm favourite in the market.

            Whilst this blog has been about improvement of runners from 2yo to 3yo I will update my top 6 taking into account latest information as follows:-

            18 Feb 2021                                                        31 May 2021

  1. Mehmas                                                            1. Mehmas
  2. Coulsty                                                              2. Territories
  3. Territories                                                        3. Coulsty
  4. New Bay                                                           4. Goken
  5. Kodi Bear                                                         5. Kodi Bear
  6. Goken                                                               6. New Bay (not seen as much improvement in ratings as I thought for 10-12f horse)

One to watch -  Twilight Son                              Keep watching Twilight Son & start watching Shalaa

 

Jim Atkinson

James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd

8th June 2021

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Chirimiri Pours It On

Posted 19/5/2021

            First win for 3yo Territories colt Chirimiri in his fourth outing at Bordeaux on May 9th. We dropped him back 400m from his previous run and his tactics changed as he had previously been well towards the lead in his races whereas this time he was plum last for about three quarters of the race. However, he showed an excellent turn of foot under the drive of Julien Augé and kept on stoutly late on to hold Super Cute by 3/4 of a length with the third a further two lengths behind. Chirimiri holds off Super Cute over 1400m at Bordeaux on 9th May Chirimiri holds off Super Cute over 1400m at Bordeaux on 9th May

            Following this success his handicap has been raised by 3 kilos to 35 which is equivalent to 77 in lbs terms. He looks to have a good turn of foot and it is likely that he'll stay 1600m well using these tactics and as he strengthens up. He has been entered for a 1600m handicap at Toulouse on May 26th. This win for the Christophe Ferland trained colt is promising and it will be interesting to see if he can continue the progression in his next race.

            Incidentally Chirimiri's win is the fourth from the last five runs of James Ortega Bloodstock bred horses and is by far our best run to date.

            

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Three On The Trot

Posted 4/5/2021

            During the first 4 months of this year not one James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd bred horse had won but that scenario has changed radically in the last four days with three winners from the last three to run! It all started at Churchill Downs, New York on the evening of the last day of April when Gift List (Bated Breath x Birthstone 2018 filly) stormed home by over 4 lengths in the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes over 8.5 furlongs. The filly, who now races for Brian Lynch in the USA, has won three of her seven races and been second in the other four and is rated 106. It turned out later that the long odds on favourite Aunt Pearl had bled during the race explaining her under performance. However, the manner of Gift List's disposal of the rest of the field convinces me that she would have given the favourite a tough race anyway. Hope that Aunt Pearl recovers well and one day reopposes in good health.

Gift List winning the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes at Churchill DownsGift List winning the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes at Churchill Downs

              I was especially pleased for the 19 year old mare Birthstone who, after winning two races as a two year old including the Group 3 Prix D'Aumale, was retired due to injury to become a broodmare. She belongs to a famous line going back through her dam Baya, who was 2nd in the Prix Diane,   to her grandam Barger who was full sister to the legendary Triptych. Whilst Birthstone has had 4 other winners, none have reached black type level, although a couple did make ratings in the 90s so Gift List's win is the best to date for her offspring. She is currently visiting Bated Breath again, so we may see a full brother or sister to Gift List in a year's time.

              The next day Twilight Calls (Twilight Son x Zawiyah 2018 colt) finally got off the mark over 6f at Doncaster after three good runs as a 2yo. The field was only four in total and it is difficult to judge what he beat, but he could hardly have done it any easier and strolled home by almost three lengths. The second had run a promising debut third with a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 76 and so with Twilight Calls having a handicap mark of 85 and off level weights he would be expected to win. Nevertheless the manner of the victory was impressive and he has gone up to 87. If he runs off that mark in a handicap next time out, I will think about putting the house on it!

            Henry Candy is the trainer of Twilight Calls and he also trained the colt's Group 1 winning sire Twilight Son as well as the Group 1 winning grandsire Kyllachy, so I took an in depth look at their racetrack progression. There are already similarities with Twilight Son's career although he did win twice as a 2yo to start his 3yo career off a mark of 83 whereas Twilight Calls managed two seconds and a rating of 85. They both made their 3yo debuts at the beginning of May and both won. Twilight Son ran all his ten races over 6f and so far Twilight Calls has run all his career races over the same distance. Next up for Twilight Son was a Class 2 handicap at York in June of his 3yo career which he won after which he was given a rating of 104. He wasn't seen on the track again until September of that year when he won the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock. I am convinced that Henry Candy is planning a similar campaign for Twilight Calls, giving him time to strengthen up and progress to possibly match his sire's achievements. Apparently Twilight Son grew and strengthened up a lot from 2yo to 3yo enabling him to improve his rating by 34lbs to 117 and I understand that Twilight Calls is developing likewise from a physical perspective. Kyllachy started out in a similar fashion winning one and being second twice from three runs at 2yo ending up with a rating of 90. His first 3yo race was at the end of April, which he duly won, before progressing during the year to end it on a rating of 103. The main difference between Kyllachy and Twilight Son is that Kyllachy's best form was as a 4yo when he won the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes in August of that year reaching a rating of 120 and he ran all his races over 5f. Twilight Calls also won a Group 1 (Diamond Jubilee) at 4yo but he was 14lbs better than Kyllachy at 3yo. Henry Candy is a patient man and clearly has done it before with this line of colts not once but on two occasions, and who is to say he won't do it again? I hope so!!Zephron ridden by Annalise Cullen to be her first ever win as a jockeyZephron ridden by Annalise Cullen to be her first ever win as a jockey

            Sunday May 2 was a boring day with no runners or winners but Monday at The Curragh brought win number three albeit in a low level 6f handicap with no less than 27 starters. Low level handicap it may have been but it was a special day for trainer Dennis Cullen and his family when Zephron (Ivawood x Amarylis 2017 gelding) scooted home by almost three lengths under an excellent ride from his 19 year old daughter Annalise who was gaining her first ever victory as a jockey to make it a memorable day for all concerned! That was Zephron's second victory and will see him move back up from his current mark of 73 closer to his best to date of 82 with the promise of more to come.

            So here I am on Tuesday 4th May writing up what has been the best ever run for our horses on the track. So what's next? Well Maysonlight (Mayson x Highland Starlight 2016 gelding) is out in the 4.20 at Gowran Park but, whilst he has shown a glimmer of ability in his runs to date, his best is a 4th place and a rating high of 71 and his price this afternoon is 28/1! Whatever, he couldn't make it four on the trot could he????? .................No he couldn't..........

Zephron storming home under Annalise Cullen at The Curragh (picture courtesy of The Curragh Racecourse)Zephron storming home under Annalise Cullen at The Curragh (picture courtesy of The Curragh Racecourse)

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 Comparing black type winners for these two stallions, NoT has achieved 7 winners and four placed horses from his Northern Hemisphere offspring whereas NNN had 6 winners in the 1st year of his first two crops with 4 and 8 placed respectively which is again broadly at the same level of achievement. One could argue that NoT has not produced outstanding offspring with his sole Group 2 winner , Night Colours, having done that in Italy, which with all due respect is probably a lower level than say France, UK or Ireland. Another slightly concerning factor is that the number of his potential runners that reached the track is a bit low at 46% for a horse who showed his best form at a mile and is of average height (16.05 hands). Maybe some of that poor conformation did get passed on and resulted in some 2yo's missing the track in 2019 but perhaps I am just searching for a negative for a young sire that looks exceptional judging on first season progeny performance. 

            Who else looks promising from the 2019 first season sires? Golden Horn looks to me to be the one who will emerge from the pack in 2020. Whilst one would have expected 2019 to be a quiet year for him given that he is a horse who showed his best form at 10 to 12 furlongs, I think it was even quieter than one would expect! His best horse was West End Girl who won the Group 3 Sweet Solera but then disappointed later in the season as did his other black type winner Festive Star who won a listed event in Italy before running down the field in France. However, it was never going to be about their 2yo careers and what is noticeable is that Golden Horn has thrown a high percentage of horses who have performed very adequately in the 70 to 85 rating range with very few below average horses. You will not get rich producing horses with those types of ratings but, given the likelihood that his produce will improve significantly at three, there may be a few stars about to burst through of those who did run as 2yos as well as from the 54% who did not run. 

            Apart from the fact that Golden Horn was at his best over middle/longer distances why else should his offspring do better in 2020? First, he only ran once as a 2yo winning a late October maiden over an extended mile (rated 86) before being put away until his Feilden, Dante, Derby, Eclipse four timer as a three year old followed later in the year with wins in the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc as well as two other close up Group 1 second places. Secondly, he is a sizable unit at 16.2 hands and if he passes that on his offspring may just need a bit more time. Thirdly, he had 46% of his potential runners turn up on the racetrack at two years old which is relatively high given his size and his need for a distance. This suggests that his progeny have good conformation in general and we can expect to see plenty of them as three year olds. Finally, whilst the 2019 group as a whole in their second season covered around 72% of the mares they covered in their first season, Golden Horn covered 91% and indeed covered around 100 mares in each of his third and fourth crops which means that he is likely to remain in focus for the next few years. Note also that he is demonstrating a higher than average ability to convert those coverings into live foals which points to a very good fertility rate. 

            Gleneagles has done ok and in Royal Dornoch and Royal Lytham one could argue has produced better horses than both NoT and Golden Horn. Royal Dornoch beat the subsequent Group 1 Futurity winner Kameko in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes whilst Royal Lytham won the Group 2 July Stakes before finishing a close up third to Siskin in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. However you would have expected his progeny to score much higher than Golden Horn's in their 1st year considering that both stallions visited mares of roughly the same quality given that he was a 7 to 8f horse and more compact at just under 16 hands high.

            Muharaar was disappointing as from a high class book of mares he finished well behind both Gleneagles and Golden Horn. On a positive note he covered in excess of 120 mares in each of his first four seasons as a stallion and has the best conversion rate of covers to foals on the ground. 2020 will be key for him to show that 2019 was not the best of him. Whilst it is still early days for this cohort of stallions it is hard to enthuse about the rest after the 1st year and the graph above does not support certain hefty hikes in stallion fees for the likes of Cable Bay, up to £15,000 from £6,500, and Due Diligence up to £8,500 from £4,000 in 2019. In both cases it is probably down to the usual market sentiment caused by excellent performer Liberty Beach for Cable Bay and three black type winners for Due Diligence as well as both getting over twenty winners in 2019. Whilst Cable Bay covered well over 100 mares in his 2nd year, that dropped off rapidly to some 30 mares in 2019 whilst Due Diligence fell away sharply in his 2nd year to less than half the mares covered in 2016 and also only covered around 30 mares in 2019. This means that things are going to go very quiet for them a year or two down the track.  Strangely Ivawood, who has been sent off to France by Coolmore and standing at about a third of his 2016 fee, comes out as having progeny on average 2lbs better than Due Diligence from a similar mare quality! Ivawood did manage a couple of French black type winners but perhaps that mercurial market sentiment isn't impacted so much by what goes on outside the British and Irish isles. Parochial, us?? Mais non. Whilst one might be tempted to punt on Ivawood as a cheap cover my worry is that he has the lowest rate of actual foals per mare covered of this lot and I wonder whether part of the fact he has been dismissed to foreign lands is down to a lower than average fertility rate.

             So, in summary, Night Of Thunder is the obvious top dog from this 2019 band of aspiring sires and that is hardly a surprise to anyone as it coincides with headline stakes performances and market sentiment. What is more, at €25,000 he is tremendous value and hopefully you managed to get in at that price because if his offspring performs as well in 2020 as they did in 2019 we are likely to see a significant hike in his covering fee for 2021. The one under the radar for me is Golden Horn and it would not surprise me at all to see him have a great 2020 for the reasons outlined above. Having said that, being under the radar at £60,000 (now £40,000) is not something in the price range of most breeders and my optimism for him this year still has to be realised. A punt on new sire and fellow Derby winner and Darley inmate Masar at £15,000 could be a better bet(This begins to sound like a Darley advert!!). Nevertheless, Golden Horn is my second best pick from the 2019 class followed by Gleneagles who incidentally covered 182 mares in 2019 and being the only one who covered more than he did in his 1st year as a stallion in 2016. 

Jim Atkinson

James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd

20th February 2020