We're in the middle of the Cheltenham national hunt festival right now but it is also a key time for sending broodmares to stallions with perhaps greater urgency in the flat division of the breeding game given the longer time horizon for horses to compete over the jumps. Below is my analysis of the class of 2022 and how their 1st crop is faring after almost a year of being able to run. As usual, the analysis compares progeny racecourse performance against broodmare quality which I firmly believe is the best way to judge how a sire is performing. Number of wins could include a lot of low quality events and, whilst a useful indication, cannot be taken as the sole factor in indicating which sire is doing the best. Prize money differences by country or specific events can also give a false impression so that a particular sire can be high up the table just because an offspring of his won a very valuable race. That is good news for the sire but may be misleading to some extent about the quality of all the offspring. Having said that, Golden Horn has produced racehorses with consistently high average ratings even taking into account a high quality of broodmare, but he hasn't had enough top quality performers nor speedy ones and that probably explains why his fee has dropped from £60k to £8k.So, whilst I like my favoured measure, it is not the only one and must be taken into account along with a number of other measures as well as non-numerical factors.
First Season Sires 2022 1st Crop to 11 March 2023
Sioux Nation, by Scat Daddy out of an Oasis Dream mare, has made a very good start with his 1st crop runners averaging 74.5 from mares rated 77.1 and 12 stakes performers including two Group 3 and two Listed winners. That is a decent performance given that the average broodmare is rated around 80 and he was covering at a modest €12,500. What is more it was a large crop of around 160 and 63% have run which, whilst you might expect that given he was a sprinter, points towards a degree of soundness. His fee dropped to €10k in his 4th season but for 2023 it has gone up to €17,500 which I think fairly respects the start he has made. Dakota Sioux and Sydneyarms Chelsea have been his G3 winners although they are part of a group of 9 rated 100 or so any of whom may improve further as 3yos. He ran 7 times as a 2yo including in April and ended up winning the G1 Phoenix Stakes. Interestingly, he is not your typical 15.3 hands sharp sprinter conformation-wise and at 16.15 it is quite possible his progeny train on particularly well.
Next best for me in this sire cohort are Havana Grey, Harry Angel and Kessaar. Havana Grey has had an excellent year with 6 stakes winners amongst his 14 stakes performers. Like Sioux Nation, his stakes winners were split between G3 and Listed and his runners had an average of 71.9 from mares rated 75.9. He had a similar 2yo career to Sioux Nation by debuting in April, running 8 times and coming a close 2nd in the G1 Prix Morny and as a pure sprinter at 15.35 hands high it is perhaps not surprising that 78% of his offspring have run. His G3 winners have been Eddie's Boy, Rumstar and Lady Hollywood whilst Listed winner Shoudvebeenaring is rated 105. The "noise" factor was high in terms of his performance as a sire given the quantity of runners, winners and high number of stakes performers from modest mares and his fee tripled to £18,500 if you have been fortunate enough to get one!
I was fortunate to visit Darley's Dalham Hall Stud at the time of the Tattersalls July Sale and saw quite a few sires including the legend Dubawi but I did not have much interest in Harry Angel as he had a had a slow start and was not high on my list of potential sires for our broodmares. Silly me! During the second half of 2022 he picked up quickly and by the time of Tattersalls December Sales I was very interested to see him but as he was swanning it Down Under with the Southern Hemisphere girls I missed him again! Since then he has continued the improvement and the chart shows his runners average at 72.7 from broodmares rated 81.6. To me that puts him a shade behind Havana Grey with runners 0.8lbs better from mares 5.7lbs better. Harry Angel was not so precocious as either Sioux Nation or Havana Grey, running only twice as a 2yo, although he did win the G2 Mill Reef Stakes. However, he made up for that as a 3yo winning two G1s and reaching a rating of 125. He is only 15.3 hands high and physically probably needs a strong mare to pair up with but he is clearly on the up which was highlighted recently when Al Dasim won a G3 at Meydan and Iconic Moment won a Listed race at Lingfield on the same day. He has had another Listed winner in Proverb and three stakes placed horses including two at G2 level including Marshman who is rated 113. Al Dasim won well by over 2 lengths in a 6f event and looks at least a G2 performer if not higher. At a £10k nomination fee I believe Harry Angel is excellent value and fixed up a cover for our broodmare Redskin Dancer this year. Unfortunately she passed away after a colic incident so that particular mating will not be happening.
A sire who I believe is under the radar is Kessaar whose progeny have an average of 70.4 from broodmares rated 71.9. That puts his runners 6th highest from the 16th best group of mares of this 2022 cohort. Although he did not have such a big crop as the others totalling 76, 75% have run and he has had two Listed placed runners in Ipanema Princess and Bolt Action. Four of his better runners, Ipanema Princess, Tostado, Mount Mary and Disdainful, have ended up in the USA and that together with his relatively few stakes performers and below average mares possibly explains why he is under the radar. The fact is that on average he is producing horses nearly as good as Havana Grey from lower level mares and at €5k he has to be a bargain.
Of the other sires, Zoustar has had an excellent one in G1 Cheveley Park Stakes winner and 114 rated Lezoo but not too many other good ones (Lezoo is the only Northern Hemisphere stakes performer) and from the 4th best mares his runners are rated 10th highest. Cracksman was a 10 to 12 furlong performer so his progeny may need a bit more time although apparently he is a C:C from a speed gene perspective which is unusual. He has had a G2 winner in Italy and three other stakes performers but we need to see some significant improvement in them as 3yos to believe that he will be a top sire. Saxon Warrior is clearly the best after the top four with his runners lying 4th from the 3rd best mares but what is eyecatching is that he not only has six stakes performers but they are by far the best quality stakes performers of any of these sires with G1 winner Victoria Road, G1 placed Geo Teorainn as well as two G3 winners and two G2 placed all achieved in either France, Ireland or the UK. Finally we have the dear departed Roaring Lion who has had a G1 winner in Dubai Mile and we can expect some improvement from his runners as 3yos. He had the best mares by some way being rated around 95 on average but his runners are lying 2nd which is no mean performance for an 8 to 10 furlong sire.
As always, early days and too early to write any sire off and it will be interesting to see how the 2nd crops perform, but the best of this sire cohort is already stamping itself
Jim Atkinson
James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd
15th March 2023