We're past halfway in the flat turf season and in my latest update to the progress of the sophomore sires it is noticeable, as one might expect, that the sires who showed their talent on the racecourse more towards the middle distances are improving in terms of their runners average ratings. Compared to where they were on the chart at 11th March (see below) Roaring Lion, Saxon Warrior Cracksman and Cloth Of Stars have all made marked improvement.   

            Roaring Lion had the best set of mares of this 2022 first season sire cohort and his runners now have the best average. In addition to 2yo Group 1 Grand Criterium winner Dubai Mile he has added another stakes winner in Running Lion as well as stakes placed horses in Embesto, Kingswood and Saint George. Waltham has won two from two for Ger Lyons and will probably add to the stakes performers list in August when he has a couple of Group 3 entries. The way Roaring Lion is shaping up it is a real pity that this is his one and only crop. 

            Victoria Road was a Group 1 winner for Saxon Warrior as a 2yo at the Breeders' Cup but hasn't been seen so far this year. That is due to change as he is also entered in the same G3 races as Waltham in August as well as the G2 Great Voltigeur and G1 Juddmonte Int'l at York and in September we could see him in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes. Thornbrook (Listed) and Greenland (G3) have won stakes races in France since March to add to G3 successes for Moon Ray (also in France) and Lumiere Rock in 2022. These five stakes winners are matched by five stakes placed horses and Saxon Warrior now has the second best crop of runners from the third best group of mares.

            Cracksman is a fair way below the aforementioned sires but has made headway with his runners' ratings moving up in tandem with Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior. He has three new stakes winners and by far the best is G1 French Derby winner and unbeaten Ace Impact who looks like he could be a stallion in waiting after his recent performance which earned an RPR of 125 with the promise of more to come.

            Finally for the middle distance brigade, Cloth Of Stars's first crop has been modest but last week his Birr Castle won a Listed race in France to record his first stakes winner and since March his average runner ratings have move up from 17th best to 14th best. Nothing great to report here, but moving in the right direction.

            Meanwhile, Sioux Nation and Havana Grey continue strongly. Sioux Nation has added several stakes winners since the start of the year including improving sprinter Ocean Quest who followed up a Listed win in Ireland with a head second G3 and then a close up 4th to speedster Shaquille in the G1 Commonwealth Cup. Miler Brave Emperor won a Listed race in France followed by a G3 in Germany, Ocean Jewel also won a G3 in Ireland and Estrosa won a Listed in Italy so that all told this first crop has yielded 7 stakes winners with a strong indication that these horses have trained on well as 3yos.

            Likewise Havana Grey continues in a similar vein adding 4 stakes winners himself since the turn of the year. Mammas Girl won the G3 7f Nell Gwyn Stakes although she subsequently disappointed when aimed at a couple of G1 classics. In addition, he has sired 3 new Listed winners in Holguin, Great State and Yakushima (in Japan) all at distances of 7f or under which give him a total of 9 1st crop stakes winners.             In my book, Sioux Nation and Havana Grey continue to be the top performers of this generation of sires given the relatively low level of mare covered (below 80 which is roughly the average rating achieved by a mare) although Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion are getting closer with their 3yos picking up well as described above. Yes their runners have higher average ratings but they covered the better quality mares with averages around 90 and 95 respectively. That is a big advantage over SN and HG whose average mare ratings for runners are 77.5 and 75.6 respectively.

            Of the rest, Harry Angel has recorded 4 new stakes winners in 2023 and 2 since my March analysis in Marshman with a G3 in France and Cadeau Belle a Listed in Ireland. He covered mares with a slightly above average level of performance as racers and his 1st crop did well after a slow start. Interestingly his 2nd crop has also started slowly although I always think it is far too soon to draw definitive conclusions about the 2yos at the end of July. We'll see if this 2nd crop improves in the next few months as his 1st crop did in 2022.

            Whilst it is early days for the 2nd crop, there are some similar performance levels and Sioux Nation and Havana Grey again are standing out as leaders of this 2022 FSS troop. HG already has 2 stakes winners in Jasour and Elite Status with the former winning the G2 July Stakes winner and looking on the way to becoming a top class sprinter. After a Listed win and a 3rd in the G2 Norfolk Stakes, Elite Status won a G3 over 6f in France. It is also noteworthy that 48% of HG's potential 2nd crop runners have already raced (84% of his 1st crop) which indicates both precocity and health. Meanwhile, SN has had a Listed winner in Italy whilst both sires have also recorded 3 stakes placed horses from this 2nd crop. Both sires are certainly confirming the merit of their fee increases in 2023 and we can expect plenty of fireworks from their progeny when the 2024 foals hit the track in 2026 following a better book of mares in 2023.

            Expert Eye's 1st crop have been somewhat disappointing with only a oouple of stakes placed horses but his 2nd crop has started better with Listed Chesham Stakes winner Snellen unbeaten in two starts and Juniper Berries being placed 4th in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes. Cloth Of Stars has also started better with Listed placed Maymay. The underperformer so far is Zoustar who had by far the best mares (possibly some of whom would have gone to Roaring Lion) yet his offspring lie 14th in terms of average ratings.

            As I said, early days and no doubt things will move around a lot with this 2nd crop before the end of the year, but patterns are emerging for this sire cohort looking at both crops performances and my top 4 as we stand today (Roaring Lion would have been there) are:-

1. Havana Grey
2. Sioux Nation
3. Saxon Warrior
4. Harry Angel 

Jim Atkinson

James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd

3rd August 2023