Another group of First Season Sires (FSS) had their runners finish their first season on the racetrack at the end of December and I have to say that overall, I think they are a fairly modest bunch with no obvious standout sire as yet. Of course I could be well wide of the mark as these guys are just starting out but "Champion" sire Sergei Prokofiev (SP)'s cohort had an average runner rating of only 65 from mares around the 75 mark. Sure, 75 is below the average mare rating of 80 but Havana Grey has recorded three crops with an average rating 7lbs higher from similar mare bands and clearly is on a different level to SP. Despite my lack of enthusiasm over SP, well done to Whitsbury Manor Stud for starting out well with another sire and Havana Grey who has continued in superb fashion.
As the title of this piece suggests, there is one sire, Ghaiyyath (G), that has caught my eye. Along with Sottsass he is one of only two 10-12f sires that I have included in this year's FSS analysis. G had a very slow start and at the end of July his runners were only 14th best from the 4th best group of mares. However, by the end of December his offspring were 3rd best on the track from the 3rd best group of mares. That is an improvement that I have not seen very often, even for a middle distance horse, and could be a sign of even better things to come.
There is no doubt that Study Of Man (SOM), from the 2023 FSS pack, has had an excellent year headed by G1 winning Kalpana which ended with Lanwades doubling his fee to £25k for 2025 (still very reasonable especially considering the recent GBB scheme changes favouring 10f plus sires) and G's year 1 data is very much aligned with what SOM achieved in the 1st year of his first crop. G was an outstanding multiple G1 winning racehorse rated as high as 130 and is by the evergreen Dubawi out of a Galileo mare and I would be very surprised if his 1st crop doesn't kick on in 2025 to achieve significantly improved results. At the moment, his sole black type performer is Stanhope Gardens who came a close 2nd in the G3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket to Delacroix who himself went on to be beaten a nose in the G1 William Hill Futurity Stakes at Doncaster.
Apart from Stanhope Gardens and an 87 RPR rated winner in Marhaba Ghaiyyath, G has no fewer than 6 runners (Gethin, Alobayyah & Rhapsody in the UK, Mandanaba & Al Uqda in France and Ameerat Alzamaan in Saudi Arabia) who won on debut and are all rated around the 85/90 mark. It would not surprise me to see at least a couple of those getting black type in 2025. Indeed the Saudi runner won his race by 11.5 lengths and has since followed up winning his second race by over 5 lengths with the field well stretched out. I struggle to rate that form but, judging by the race videos, he looks pretty smart to me!
The other factor that encourages me with Ghaiyyath is that he stands at 16.2 hands (only Persian King is bigger at 16.3) which would suggest that his stock should improve relatively more as they develop. Despite his size he did have 41% of his potential runners race in 2024 which is quite a good turnout for a 10-12f sire at 16.2 hands high which suggests to me that his stock are ok conformation-wise in general.
As for the rest, Pinatubo has done well with Listed winner Tipinso in France and 4 other black type placed runners including G2 2nd Wolf Of Badenoch who is probably his best horse to date. Mohaather is another who started slowly, but he picked up quickly in the second half of the season and had G3 Molecomb Stakes winner Big Mojo as well as Listed winners Ya Mo Be There & Merveilleux Lapin. Considering he was a racehorse who was best at 4yo when he won the G1 Sussex Stakes, it's reasonable to think that there is more to come from him. Hopefully our foal on the way inside Going For Gold is part of that! Hello Youmzain looks to have started the best of the French sires I've covered and he's had 4 black type horses including 2 G3 winners although I don't see quite why his fee has been almost doubled to €40k and he looks a bit over-priced to me. Kameko has had a couple of very good horses in New Century, a G1 Summer Stakes winner in Canada, as well as G2 Royal Lodge winner Wimbledon Hawkeye who then went on to be G1 placed. However, his position below the trendline indicates a fair amount of below average stock. From my perspective, too many people are shouting about the good ones but forget the not so good ones and if you want to breed a good racehorse then you should consider the whole lot of them which surely will give you another indication of the likelihood of breeding a good one. Sottsass is another one who has performed well below expectations considering he has received the 2nd best group of mares of this sire cohort. He's already been shipped off to Japan, and whilst that country is a top breeding nation, clearly Coolmore weren't over-enamoured with him.
As I always say, too early to write any of these sires off but quite a lot of them need to step up in their 2nd year or they'll be shipped off to other climes. Ghaiyyath is the one that I like most by quite a distance and hopefully he'll prove me right and give us another top middle distance sire.
Jim Atkinson
James Ortega Bloodstock Ltd
18th January 2025