21st March, Spring is here and the flat is back. What more could you want! Well, a great sire to cover my broodmare for one I hear. With that in mind, here is my analysis of the 2023 First Season Sires and how they are doing with their first crop after almost a quarter of 2024.
Everything I read says that Blue Point is the star and that Too Darn Hot is up there as well. No doubt that Blue Point has had a very good 1st year and in Rosallion, winner of the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagadere over 1400m, and Big Evs, winner of the Group 1 Juvenile Turf Sprint over 5 furlongs, he has two high class colts who can go on to even bigger things this year. Unbeaten double 6f winner Pocklington also looks like one to watch and surely only a matter of time before he wins black type. In total Blue Point has had 5 stakes winners which is the same number as Too Darn Hot who includes Dewhurst 2nd Alyanaabi amongst them. Too Darn Hot has also had 3 smart fillies in Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes winning Fallen Angel, Group 2 winning miler Darnation and Etes Vous Pret who recently won a Group 2 in Japan. Mind you, he did cover by far the best book of mares with an average rating of 97 and 53% of them being winners of black type. Overall, the chart below suggests that, at this early stage, Blue Point has performed better than Too Darn Hot with his runners achieving an average rating of 76 vs 74.3 for the latter and that from mares some 6lbs inferior. No doubt, these two sires have started on the right track (and their new nomination fees for 2024 reflect that) but I think there are a few others who have done likewise but are sailing somewhat under the radar.
Calyx was a revelation when winning the Group 2 Coventry Stakes as a juvenile but we did not see him again that season and then only twice as a 3 year old before he had some leg issues that eventually resulted in him being retired after only 4 runs. He covered mares fully 14lbs and 8lbs lower than Too Darn Hot and Blue Point in his first crop but still managed to get 3 stakes winners and 3 placed ones. Whilst the amount of black type runners is clearly an indication of top class offspring, which is one of the main aims of the game, I feel it is sometimes over-hyped as it does not take into account the quality of the mares covered nor the overall level of offspring sired. Calyx covered mares only a bit better than average but he has produced Dewhurst 3rd Eben Shaddad, Group 2 winners Persian Dreamer and Classic Flower as well as Group 3 winner Zona Verde in the USA and not to mention Group 2 Norfolk Stakes runner up Malc out of a full sister to my old mate Hearts Of Fire. His average runner is rated less than 1lb behind Too Darn Hot despite the inferior mares and yet his fee is one sixth of that sire in 2024. Whilst the nomination fee is only one factor in the decision making process that is a strong argument to pick Calyx over Too Darn Hot if other factors point towards a likely decent match.
Study Of Man was not precocious (although 55% of his 1st crop have run which is a good % for a non-sprinting sire) and, whilst he won the race, he only ran once (in September) as a 2yo. Nevertheless, he developed well winning as a 3yo the Group 1 Prix Du Jockey Club and registering a couple of Group 1 2nds at 4yo. I'd say he was best at 9 to 10f and as he is also quite a big lad at 16.1 I would expect to see his progeny improve at 3yo and beyond. Therefore it is somewhat surprising that his progeny on average are less than 2lbs behind sprinter Blue Point from mares only slightly better. Group 2 winner Deepone has entries in the Irish 2000 Guineas as well as both English and Irish Derbies whilst unbeaten Sons And Lovers also has entries in the English 2000 Guineas and Irish Derby. Star Studded has also won twice over 1m and may be another who stands out in 2024. I expect a few others will emerge in the next three months or so and Ms Rausing must be very excited by this start by Study Of Man. It would be great if a son of Deep Impact could make a name for himself in Europe along with Saxon Warrior who has already made a very good start. Likely we will see another Deep Impact son in Auguste Rodin join the stallion ranks next season.
Talking of Hearts Of Fire, I remember seeing our lad run 4th at Chantilly in the Prix Jean Prat a couple of places behind Siyouni who later went to stud at €7,000 a cover. We all know now what a bargain that was and he is standing at €200,000 this year! Well, although he is not likely to beat that, I think his son City Light could turn out to be another bargain in waiting. He won as a 2yo but nothing special and after his 3yo career you would say he was a Group 3/Listed level horse at best. However, at 4yo he started to improve winning a Group 3 before coming a neck second in the Group 1 Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. He won another group 3 as a 5yo before rounding off his 22 race career with a close second in the Group 1 Prix De La Foret over 1400m. I would say he was not very top class but a stakes horse who proved himself durable and improved over time being most effective around 1200m to 1400m. Funnily enough, he started out like dad at €7,000 and has stayed there for 2024 which is his 5th covering season. Siyouni also stayed at €7,000 in his first 4 seasons as a sire before leaping up to €20,000 in his 5th year. City Light hasn't done that, probably because he has only had one stakes placed horse to date from his 1st crop who is Rock The Kasbah a Group 3 and Listed placed horse. So, yes he needs a top performer or two to get more attention but in La Mandala, who won by 9 lengths on debut at St Cloud recently, and Badda Bing, who won over 1 mile in Ireland in February also on debut he may have a couple who could soon get that desired winning black type. Whilst statistics are not everything, (although you wouldn't believe that judging by all the Stallion owner utilisation of specific stats in their marketing hype!) City Light also has a number of top stats that indicate we could be seeing much more to come. First, 48% of his runners to date are 80+ rated (Blue Point 44%, Too Darn Hot 37%, Calyx 37%, Study Of Man 31%, Ten Sovereigns 28%) which indicates a consistent ability to get decent level runners especially considering that he has achieved that from mares of which 17% have black type (Too Darn Hot 53%, Blue Point 41%, Study Of Man 32%, Calyx 17%, Ten Sovereigns 16%). 56% of City Light's runners have won (Blue Point 48%, Calyx 48%, Too Darn Hot 43%, Study Of Man 38%, Ten Sovereigns 37%) which is another indication of his ability to get good horses. He has covered 480 mares in his first 4 seasons as a sire so he will have plenty of runners and, given he is quite a big unit at 16.15 hands high and his own improvement on the track over time, it is quite possible we will see his offspring improve with age.
The only other sire from this group that has started well is Ten Sovereigns who has had more black type performers (12) than any of the others although only 3 have been winners. The best of these appears to be Inquisitvely who won a Listed and a Group 3 over the minimum trip as a 2yo.
Overall, away from the pricey sires Blue Point and Too Darn Hot, I think that City Light is very underrated and great value at €7,000. Calyx is doing very well and also a reasonable price at €12,500 whilst I'm impressed with Study Of Man's start. He also stands at a reasonable fee. The rest have it all to do although as we all know "Rome wasn't built in a day".
Jim Atkinson
James Ortega Bloodstock ltd
21st March 2024